There’s been no lack of drama this primary season. Much of the national media is focused on the federal elections in the U.S. House and Senate, but they’re missing a big part of the story – will Democrats rebuild power in the governors’ races or will Republicans keep their almost record-breaking hold?
<p>By: Elizabeth Tansing, Senior Director, State Government Relations, and Julie Schrei, Director, Political Affairs, Food Marketing Institute</p> <p><img src="https://www.fmi.org/images/default-source/blog-images/us-map.tmb-large-350-.jpg?sfvrsn=fded426e_1" data-displaymode="Thumbnail" alt="US Map" title="US Map" style="float: right; margin-left: 10px;" />There’s been no lack of drama this primary season. Much of the national media is focused on the federal elections in the U.S. House and Senate, but they’re missing a big part of the story – will Democrats rebuild power in the governors’ races or will Republicans keep their almost record-breaking hold? </p> <h4><strong>Governor’s hold a lot of power in 2020</strong></h4> <p>As Congress fails to act on what citizens think is important, the role of local politics becomes more crucial. For example, significant labor, tax and environmental issues have all seen action on the local front. Several mayors want to take lessons learned with them to the executive offices of the states. In 2018, some 20 former or current mayors launched campaigns for governor. </p> <p>Not only are more governors taking on key issues that affect our daily business, but all but two – New Hampshire and Vermont – will be elected to a four-year term. This means that 34 newly elected governors will have full veto power over redrawn Congressional and state legislative districts in 2021 following the 2020 census. </p> <h4><strong>Who or what is Gerrymandering?</strong></h4> <p>As we’ve seen in recent Supreme Court rulings, redrawing the lines is anything but noncontroversial and will have a significant role in future elections. In 1812 Massachusetts Governor Elbridge Gerry signed a law redrawing district lines to benefit one party- and so “gerrymandering” was born. </p> <p>Written into the U.S. Constitution, each state must rework Congressional districts to reflect population changes determined by the U.S. Census Bureau every 10 years. This powerful reconfiguration gives states the ability to:</p> <ul> <li>gerrymander current districts to favor incumbents or to deliberately cut them out of their existing districts, and </li> <li>create districts that favor one political party, thus allowing one party to control Congress, states, and local governments.</li> </ul> <h4><strong>What’s the Outlook for Gubernatorial Races?</strong></h4> <p>California’s current lieutenant governor and former mayor of San Francisco, Gavin Newsom, a liberal who favors universal healthcare and cannabis legalization, is expected to win the California governor’s race. Karl Dean, former Nashville mayor and past keynote speaker for <a href="https://www.fmi.org/forms/meeting/Microsite/state-issues-retreat-2018">FMI’s State Issues Retreat</a> is likely to win the Democratic nomination, but is considered a long shot at winning the race for Tennessee governor. </p> <p>Former Anchorage Mayor and U.S. Senator Mark Begich (D) threw his hat in the Alaska governor’s race earlier this month, and Republican Mick Cornett, mayor of Oklahoma City will vie for the executive seat in Oklahoma. Other states that still have mayors in the race are Alabama, Connecticut, Florida, Kansas, New Hampshire, New York, Rhode Island and Wisconsin. </p> <p>Currently, Republicans hold 33 governorships, to just 16 held by Democrats. This November, 36 states will hold gubernatorial elections – <strong>triple the amount </strong>of races in 2016. Fourteen governors are term-limited in 2018. They are:</p> <img src="https://www.fmi.org/images/default-source/blog-images/screen-shot-2018-07-30-at-9-03-29-am.png?sfvrsn=9bed426e_0" data-displaymode="Original" alt="Gubernatorial Races 2018" title="Gubernatorial Races 2018" style="float: left; margin-right: 10px;" /><br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <p> <br /> <br /> Of the remaining 22 seats, three governors have announced they will not run. Here is the breakdown:<br /> <br /> <img src="https://www.fmi.org/images/default-source/blog-images/screen-shot-2018-07-30-at-9-04-17-am.png?sfvrsn=89ed426e_0" data-displaymode="Original" alt="Not Seeking Re-Election 2018" title="Not Seeking Re-Election 2018" style="float: left; margin-right: 10px;" /><br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> And of these 36 races, nine are currently in the “Toss-Up” category, meaning neither party is favored to win. Republicans must defend 26 Governor’s mansions:</p> <img src="https://www.fmi.org/images/default-source/blog-images/screen-shot-2018-07-30-at-9-04-59-am.png?sfvrsn=bfed426e_0" data-displaymode="Original" alt="Toss Up Races 2018" title="Toss Up Races 2018" /><br /> <br /> <p>For more information, visit <a href="https://fmiaction.mmp2.org">FMI’s Voting Resources </a>page for voting resources.</p>
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